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Updated: Oct 6, 2025

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降雨变化对经济生产的影响
Maximilian Kotz1,2, Anders Levermann1,2,3, Leonie Wenz4,5
1Research Department of Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Nature
|January 13, 2022
概括
尤其是在高收入国家和服务业, 雨天的增加和极端降雨阻碍了经济增长. 了解每日降雨分布对于评估气候变化的经济影响至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 环境经济学
- 宏观经济学
背景情况:
- 对气候影响的宏观经济评估往往忽视了每日降雨分布.
- 每日降雨模式对于理解复杂的社会影响和气候变化影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析每日降雨量分布与经济增长之间的关系.
- 研究不同部门和收入水平如何受到降雨变化的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了40年来1,554个地区的全球经济产出数据集.
- 研究了雨天频率,每日极端降雨量,年降雨总量和月降雨偏差对经济增长率的影响.
主要成果:
- 经济增长速度随着雨天的增加和每日极端降雨而下降.
- 每日降雨量对高收入国家和服务/制造业的影响最大.
- 这些结果补充了以前关于降雨增加在低收入农业经济体的好处的发现.
结论:
- 人类造成的每日极端降雨可能会对全球经济产生负面影响.
- 评估多个时间尺度和部门的降雨分布对于了解气候与经济的相互作用至关重要.
- 需要进一步评估以量化气候变化的经济成本,考虑到每日降雨的影响.
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