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斯瓦尔巴德冰川的历史变化预测到2100年冰川的质量损失将增加一倍
Emily C Geyman1,2, Ward J J van Pelt3, Adam C Maloof4
1Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway. egeyman@caltech.edu.
Nature
|January 20, 2022
概括
冰川融化有助于海平面上升. 斯瓦尔巴德
科学领域:
- 冰川学与气候科学
- 地球系统科学
- 冰层研究
背景情况:
- 冰川和冰盖融化对全球海平面上升有很大影响.
- 斯瓦尔巴德的独特气候变化使其成为研究冰川对气候变暖的反应的理想地点.
- 了解冰川质量平衡对于预测未来海平面变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了量化斯瓦尔巴德冰川的历史稀疏率.
- 为了确定斯瓦尔巴德冰川的气候敏感性.
- 在气候变化情景下预测斯瓦尔巴德冰川的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 使用历史空中图像 (1936-1938) 和现代海拔数据.
- 采用运动图形测量来重建冰川的几何形状.
- 分析了超过70年的质量平衡模式, 以将冰川变化与气候变量联系起来.
主要成果:
- 与1936-2010年相比,到21世纪末,冰川的稀释速度预计将增加一倍以上.
- 平均夏季气温上升1°C与面积正常化的质量平衡下降0.28 m/年相关.
- 发现了控制斯瓦尔巴德冰川融化速度的强烈温度依赖.
结论:
- 斯瓦尔巴德冰川对气温上升非常敏感.
- 未来的变暖将导致斯瓦尔巴德冰川的质量减少.
- 这项研究为完善气候模型和海平面上升预测提供了关键数据.
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