气候社会系统中的排放途径的决定因素
Frances C Moore1, Katherine Lacasse2, Katharine J Mach3,4
1Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA, USA. fmoore@ucdavis.edu.
Nature
|February 17, 2022
概括
气候政策的有效性取决于社会政治技术因素,而不仅仅是排放. 对于限制全球变暖至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 社会科学
- 政策分析
背景情况:
- 气候政策的雄心壮志和有效性是确定温室气体排放和气候变化影响的关键.
- 目前的气候变化模型通常将影响政策和排放的社会政治技术过程视为外部因素.
研究的目的:
- 在气候社会系统中识别和建模反过程.
- 分析气候政策和排放轨迹中的非线性和临界点的潜力.
- 调查公众观念,技术和政治反应对未来变暖的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了气候社会系统的风格化模型,整合了各种学科的反过程.
- 分析模型行为以识别个人,社区,国家和全球范围内的非线性和临界点.
- 限制模型参数与观察和模拟10万未来的政策和排放轨迹.
主要成果:
- 确定了未来排放路径的5个不同的集群,预计2100年气温将比工业化前水平高出1.8°C至3.6°C.
- 模型行为显示出显著的非线性和临界点,特别是在不同尺度的交叉点.
- 公众对气候变化的看法,未来减缓技术的成本/有效性以及政治机构的反应能力是排放变化的关键驱动因素.
结论:
- 社会政治技术反循环是气候政策和排放结果的关键决定因素.
- 跨规模的互联性可以带来决定性的政策和排放结果,包括潜在的临界点.
- 了解这些复杂的相互作用对于限制未来的全球变暖至关重要.
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