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对未来降水变化的新出现的约束
Hideo Shiogama1, Masahiro Watanabe2, Hyungjun Kim3,4,5
1Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan. shiogama.hideo@nies.go.jp.
Nature
|February 24, 2022
概括
未来的气候模型显示全球降水变化 (ΔP) 预测的不确定性减少. 通过分析最近的趋势,科学家们限制了降水预测,为影响评估提供了更可靠的数据.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 地球系统建模
- 大气科学
背景情况:
- 全球平均降水变化 (ΔP) 预测的不确定性高于全球平均温度变化 (ΔT).
- 对于 ΔP 的观察约束比 ΔT 的研究少,通常因气溶的影响而复杂化.
- 现有的地球系统模型显示了未来降水预测的显著变化.
研究的目的:
- 使用观测约束来减少未来全球降水变化 (ΔP) 预测的不确定性.
- 在中等温室气体场景下确定 ΔP 的可靠范围.
- 提高气候模型对影响评估的准确性.
主要方法:
- 使用了5和6阶段的合模型对比项目组合.
- 分析了 ΔP (2051-2100) 与最近的全球平均温度趋势 (1980年以后) 之间的相关性.
- 研究了 ΔP 与近期降水趋势之间的相关性,不包括热带陆地地区.
主要成果:
- 在温室气体中等情景下, ΔP预测的上限从6.2%降至5.2-5.7%.
- 在2051-2100年, ΔP与1980年后的全球平均温度趋势有显著的相关性.
- 根据观察约束和最近的趋势, ΔP 的变量减少了 8-30%.
结论:
- 由观测限制的 ΔP 范围为未来降水变化提供了更可靠的估计.
- 这项研究成功地减少了气候模型降雨预测的不确定性.
- 改善的 ΔP 预测将提高气候变化影响评估的准确性.
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