自1970年以来对北极的淡水运输
Taimoor Sohail1, Jan D Zika2,3,4, Damien B Irving5,6
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. t.sohail@unsw.edu.au.
Nature
|February 24, 2022
概括
全球变暖改变了水循环, 使历史变化难以衡量. 这项研究量化了海洋淡水运输,发现当前的气候模型低估了观察到的极地运动.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学
- 海洋学
- 气候科学
背景情况:
- 由于全球变暖而导致的全球水循环变化,
- 量化历史的水循环变化是很困难的,因为有限的直接观测,特别是在海洋.
- 海洋盐度反映了空气-海洋淡水流,盐度在最热/最冷地区最低,在中间温度最高.
研究的目的:
- 为了追踪温暖,盐的海洋中的盐度趋势.
- 从1970年到2014年观测到地球系统的极端淡水运输.
- 将观察到的淡水运输与气候模型模拟进行比较 (CMIP6).
主要方法:
- 在温暖,盐的海洋地区分析海洋盐度趋势.
- 对北极的淡水运输费用进行量化.
- 与气候模型相互比较项目的第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的模拟结果进行比较.
主要成果:
- 在1970年至2014年期间,从温暖到寒冷的海洋地区向北极的淡水运输发生在34-62毫斯弗德拉普 (mSv) 之间.
- 在目前的CMIP6气候模型中没有复制这种观察到的速率.
- 与观察结果 (3.0-7.4%) 相比,CMIP6模型显示历史表面流放大较弱.
结论:
- 观察到的南极淡水运输为气候模型提供了历史限制.
- 气候模型可能低估了表面淡水流的历史放大.
- 解决气候模型中的偏差对于准确预测未来的水循环变化至关重要.
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