热带气旋与美国县级死亡率的关联
Robbie M Parks1,2, Jaime Benavides1, G Brooke Anderson3
1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York.
JAMA
|March 8, 2022
概括
热带气旋增加了受伤,传染病,心血管和呼吸系统疾病以及神经精神疾病的死亡率. 这项研究量化了风日对美国31年因特定原因死亡率的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 热带气旋对社会构成重大风险,但对其对特定原因死亡率的长期影响的综合数据有限.
- 了解这些关联对于公共卫生准备和应对至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估美国县级热带气旋暴露与特定原因死亡率之间的关联.
- 分析31年的死亡趋势, 考虑各种潜在的死亡原因.
主要方法:
- 一个回顾性观察研究利用了贝叶斯条件准-波桑模型.
- 分析了1988年至2018年间美国1206个县的3360万人死亡的数据.
- 热带气旋日被定义为持续最大风速为34节或更高的日.
主要成果:
- 每个月的每一天热带气旋都与下一个月受伤 (3.7%),传染病 (1.8%),呼吸系统疾病 (1.3%),心血管疾病 (1.2%) 和神经精神疾病 (1.2%) 的死亡率增加有关.
- 没有发现与癌症死亡率有显著关联.
- 这些关联在不同年龄组,性别和社会脆弱性指数中进行了分析.
结论:
- 热带气旋暴露与事件发生后的几个月内死亡率的增加有关.
- 这些发现凸显了风暴易发地区有针对性的公共卫生干预的必要性.
- 这项研究为热带气旋对健康的长期影响提供了宝贵的见解.
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