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全球海洋热浪季节性预测
Michael G Jacox1,2,3, Michael A Alexander4, Dillon Amaya4
1NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Monterey, CA, USA. michael.jacox@noaa.gov.
Nature
|April 21, 2022
概括
海洋热浪可以提前一年预测. 这些预测可以帮助海洋资源管理者为这些极端海洋事件的生态和社会经济影响做好准备并减轻其影响.
科学领域:
- 海洋学
- 气候科学
- 海洋生态
背景情况:
- 海洋热浪是极端的海洋温度事件,具有重大的生态和社会经济影响.
- 海洋资源的有效管理受到海洋资源破坏能力的挑战.
- 预测MHW对于积极的决策和增强海洋生态系统的弹性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 进行对MHW可预测性的全面评估.
- 使用多模型气候预测组合开发和评估MHW预测.
- 为海洋资源管理者提供有关MHW预警的可操作见解.
主要方法:
- 使用了大量全球气候预测模型.
- 进行了30年的回顾性MHW预测,
- 评估MHW发病,强度和持续时间的预测技能,预测时间长达12个月.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,MHW的发病,强度和持续时间往往是可以预测的.
- 熟练的MHW预测可以提前1至12个月实现.
- 预测性因地区,季节和气候模式而异,如ENSO.
结论:
- 运营MHW预测是可行的,类似于极端天气预测.
- 概率预测可以使利益相关者实施基于风险的管理策略.
- 海洋环境预测可以显著提高全球海洋生态系统的气候弹性.
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