气候变化增加了跨物种病毒传播的风险
Colin J Carlson1,2, Gregory F Albery3,4, Cory Merow5
1Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. colin.carlson@georgetown.edu.
Nature
|April 28, 2022
概括
气候变化和土地使用将增加野生动物之间的病毒共享,导致估计有4000例跨物种传播. 蝙蝠是新型病毒共享的关键,
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 病毒学
- 气候科学
背景情况:
- 超过1万种病毒可以感染人类,目前大多数仅限于野生哺乳动物.
- 环境变化,包括气候和土地使用,正在增加野生动物之间的病毒传播机会.
- 动物传染病的蔓延,即疾病从动物传播到人类,与全球环境变化有机械联系.
研究的目的:
- 模拟未来哺乳动物之间病毒共享的潜在热点.
- 预测气候变化和土地使用情景对哺乳动物病毒相互作用的影响.
- 确定最有可能涉及未来动物传染事件的地区和物种.
主要方法:
- 使用哺乳动物病毒网络的生物地理模型.
- 包含了 3,139 种哺乳动物的地理范围变化预测.
- 2070年的气候变化和土地利用情况.
主要成果:
- 预计在亚洲和非洲的高海拔地区,生物多样性热点和人口密度高的地区新组合的物种聚合.
- 由于这些新物种的结合, 估计有4000例跨物种病毒传播.
- 确定蝙蝠是新型病毒共享的主要贡献者,其途径有助于未来人类的出现.
- 发现将变暖限制在2°C并不会显著减少未来的病毒共享.
结论:
- 推动病毒共享的生态转型可能已经发生.
- 迫切需要将病毒监测与追踪物种范围变化的生物多样性调查相结合.
- 热带地区需要特别注意,因为动物病的发病率高,气候变暖迅速.
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