森林应对气候变化的新信号
Giovanni Forzieri1,2, Vasilis Dakos3, Nate G McDowell4,5
1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. giovanni.forzieri@unifi.it.
Nature
|July 13, 2022
概括
由于气候变化,森林的恢复力在全球范围内下降,热带,干旱和温带森林受到影响最大. 总体而言, 森林正在失去抗扰能力.
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 气候变化科学
- 遥感技术
背景情况:
- 森林生态系统依赖于抗灾能力.
- 由于气候变化造成的森林弹性变化,人们对其演变的理解有限.
- 实验证据表明树木死亡率正在上升,
研究的目的:
- 通过卫星数据和机器学习评估2000-2020年森林弹性变化.
- 使用关键减速指标量化森林的弹性.
- 确定森林恢复能力变化的区域模式和驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 整合基于卫星的植被指数与机器学习算法.
- 通过关键减速指标量化森林弹性.
- 分析不同生物群 (热带,干旱,温带,北极) 的森林弹性趋势.
主要成果:
- 在热带,干旱和温带地区观察到森林弹性显著下降,与水资源限制和气候变化有关.
- 极地森林表现出不同的局部模式,平均弹性趋势正在增加,这可能是由于变暖和二氧化碳受精.
- 森林复原能力的下降与森林初级生产率的急剧下降有关,23%的完整森林达到关键值.
结论:
- 森林的复原力普遍下降表明它们的抗扰能力有所下降.
- 气候变化是这些弹性变化的重要驱动因素.
- 结果强调需要将森林弹性纳入基于土地的减缓和适应战略.
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