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Updated: Sep 2, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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在风险管理方面面对前所未有的洪水和干旱的挑战
Heidi Kreibich1, Anne F Van Loon2, Kai Schröter3,4
1GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany. Heidi.Kreibich@gfz-potsdam.de.
Nature
|August 3, 2022
概括
风险管理有助于减少洪水和干旱的影响, 改善治理和投资可以增强对这些严重自然灾害的抵御力.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 气候科学
- 水文学
背景情况:
- 尽管有风险管理工作,全球洪水和干旱的影响仍在增加.
- 有限的经验数据阻碍了对变化的灾难影响的理解.
- 气候变化预测显示更多极端的水文事件.
研究的目的:
- 研究风险管理对减少洪水和干旱影响的有效性.
- 确定影响极端水文事件影响的因素.
- 了解前所未有的自然灾害带来的挑战.
主要方法:
- 分析包括同一地区45对洪水和干旱事件的全球数据集.
- 风险管理干预前后事件影响的比较.
- 对事件大小和危险水平进行管理策略的评估.
主要成果:
- 风险管理通常会降低影响,但也会应对超出先前经验的空前事件.
- 在随后的事件中,较高的危险水平通常导致更大的影响.
- 两个案例表明,由于治理和综合管理的改善,更危险的事件的影响减少了.
结论:
- 目前的风险管理策略往往不足以应对极端,前所未有的水文事件.
- 加强治理和对综合管理的投资对于提高性至关重要.
- 极端事件的频率越来越高,需要采取适应性和强有力的风险管理方法.
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