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东南极冰盖对过去和未来气候变化的反应
Chris R Stokes1, Nerilie J Abram2,3, Michael J Bentley4
1Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK. c.r.stokes@durham.ac.uk.
Nature
|August 10, 2022
概括
东南极冰层拥有地球大部分的冰, 显示区域质量损失, 挑战其感知稳定性. 未来的预测取决于全球变暖减缓的努力.
科学领域:
- 冰川学
- 气候科学
- 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 东南极冰层 (EAIS) 包含了地球大部分的冰川冰,大约相当于海平面的52米.
- 历史上被认为比其他冰盖更容易受到全球变暖的影响,最近一些EAIS地区的质量损失需要重新评估其气候敏感性.
研究的目的:
- 审查EAIS对过去温暖时期的反应.
- 综合目前关于EAIS变化的观察数据.
- 评估不同气候场景下EAIS行为未来的预测.
主要方法:
- 对古气候数据的文献综述.
- 对当代卫星和现场观测记录的分析.
- 对21世纪及以后的气候模型预测进行评估.
主要成果:
- 一些以海为基础的EAIS水域在过去经历了质量损失,目前正在失去质量.
- 大多数21世纪的预测表明整个EAIS的冰积累增加,这表明大体上是平衡状态.
- 2100年以后的高排放场景预计会增加冰层排放, 海平面可能会上升数米.
结论:
- 对于长期变暖趋势,EAIS的稳定性是敏感的.
- 根据"巴黎协定",将全球变暖限制在2°C以下,对于避免EAIS大量损失和海平面上升至关重要.
- 如果气候变暖超过"巴黎协定"的目标,海平面可能在几个世纪内大幅上升.
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