综合证据表明,二氧化碳的社会成本更高
Kevin Rennert1, Frank Errickson2, Brian C Prest1
1Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA.
Nature
|September 1, 2022
概括
二氧化碳 (SC-CO2) 的社会成本被严重低估. 最新研究和建模显示,每二氧化碳价格为185美元, 比目前美国政府估计的高3.6倍,
科学领域:
- 气候科学与经济学
- 环境政策分析
- 风险估值
背景情况:
- 二氧化碳 (SC-CO2) 的社会成本对气候政策至关重要,但2017年NASEM报告发现估计已过时.
- 现有的SC-CO2值已使用十多年,缺乏最新的科学和经济建模.
- 之前的估计并不完全反映气候科学,经济学和风险估值方面的最新研究.
研究的目的:
- 根据最新的科学和经济研究,更新二氧化碳 (SC-CO2) 的社会成本估计.
- 制定更准确,更透明的碳排放估值,反映当前对气候变化影响和风险的理解.
- 为气候缓解政策的效益成本分析提供改进的估计.
主要方法:
- 开发了开源的温室气体影响估值模型 (GIVE).
- 包含了改进的概率社会经济预测,先进的气候模型和更新的损害函数.
- 应用了理论上一致的风险估值,使用了2%的折扣率的更新折扣方法.
主要成果:
- 首选的平均SC-CO2估计值为每CO2185美元 (范围为44美元至413美元,百分比为5%至95%).
- 这是美国政府目前每51美元的价值的3.6倍.
- 更新的方法和数据显著增加了SC-CO2的估计值,与NASEM的建议保持一致.
结论:
- 更高的SC-CO2估计将大大增加温室气体减排的感知效益.
- 这些发现表明,更严格的气候政策比以前计算的更有利.
- 在政策决策中,GIVE模型为SC-CO2估计提供了强大,透明和最新的框架.
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