延迟使用生物能源作物可能威胁气候和粮食安全
Siqing Xu1, Rong Wang2,3,4,5,6,7, Thomas Gasser8
1Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP³), Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Nature
|September 7, 2022
概括
气候变化对作物产量产生负面影响,减少碳捕获和储存 (BECCS) 潜力的生物能源,并威胁到粮食安全. 早期气候缓解对于避免这些风险和实现全球气温目标至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 农业科学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球变暖缓解策略通常假设大规模的生物能源与碳捕获和储存 (BECCS).
- 气候变化对作物产量的影响对BECCS产能和全球粮食安全构成风险.
- 这可能会造成一个积极的反循环,
研究的目的:
- 量化气候变化,作物产量和BECCS潜力之间的反循环.
- 评估缓解气候变化的延迟对实现2°C目标的影响.
- 评估对粮食安全和气候稳定的风险.
主要方法:
- 在地球系统模型中实施的作物产量对温度,二氧化碳和肥的反应.
- 量化了气候-作物产量-BECCS反循环的强度.
- 模拟的场景与延迟的全球缓解和BECCS部署.
主要成果:
- 延迟缓解 (在2060年之后) 显著变暖 (>2.5°C) 极大地减少了农业残留产量.
- 在推迟行动的情况下,BECCS的容量不足以达到2°C的巴黎目标.
- 持续的粮食需求可能会导致耕地扩张或化肥,从而增加气候风险.
结论:
- 为了避免不可逆转的气候变化和粮食危机,应尽早减缓气候变化 (理想情况下要到2040年).
- 由于生物质可用性减少,延迟部署BECCS可能导致气候目标未能实现.
- 除非出现其他负排放技术,否则需要采取紧急行动.
相关概念视频
What is Climate?
18.8K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.8K
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
26.2K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
26.2K
Sustainable Development
13.5K
As the human population continues to grow and use resources, we must be mindful of our planet’s natural limits. Sustainable development provides a pathway to maintain and improve human life now while also ensuring that future generations will have the resources that they need. The long-term success of sustainability efforts rests on understanding the interplay between human actions and ecological systems.
13.5K
Responses to Heat and Cold Stress
13.7K
Every organism has an optimum temperature range within which healthy growth and physiological functioning can occur. At the ends of this range, there will be a minimum and maximum temperature that interrupt biological processes.
13.7K
Global Climate Change
24.7K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.7K
Plant Breeding and Biotechnology
19.7K
Crop cultivation has a long history in human civilization, with records showing the cultivation of cereal plants beginning at around 8000 BC. This early plant breeding was developed primarily to provide a steady supply of food.
19.7K


