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超过1.5°C的全球变暖可能引发多个气候转折点
David I Armstrong McKay1,2,3,4, Arie Staal1,2,5, Jesse F Abrams3
1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
概括
随着气候变暖,地球系统的临界点越来越接近. 迫切需要减缓气候变化,以避免这些自我延续的变化造成严重影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 地球系统科学
- 古气候学
背景情况:
- 气候转折点代表了一些关键的值,在这些值中,小小的干扰会引发自我延续的,相当大的地球系统影响.
- 目前全球气候变暖比工业化前水平高约1.1°C,正在接近一些临界点的下限.
研究的目的:
- 提供全球和区域气候倾斜因素及其相关温度值的修订综合.
- 评估在不同的全球变暖情景下触发转折点的风险,包括"巴黎协定"范围和当前政策轨迹.
主要方法:
- 综合了古气候记录中的发现.
- 整合来自观察气候研究的数据.
- 使用基于气候模型的研究.
主要成果:
- 一个经过修订的全球"核心"和区域"影响"倾斜元素清单已经确定.
- 在"巴黎协定"规定的1.5°C至2°C升温范围内,可能会出现几个临界点.
- 许多临界点可能会在2°C至3°C升温时被激活,这与当前的政策预测一致.
结论:
- 加强了应对气候变化的证据基础.
- 改善风险评估,早期预警系统和适应转折点的战略至关重要.
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