海流显示全球弱热带气旋的强化
Guihua Wang1, Lingwei Wu2, Wei Mei3
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. wanggh@fudan.edu.cn.
Nature
|November 17, 2022
概括
热带气旋 (TC) 正在全球范围内加剧,弱势的TC显示强度显著上升. 这项研究使用准确的海洋流数据来证实TC的强化,为气候模型提供了关键的基线.
科学领域:
- * 大气科学
- * 海洋学
- * 气候科学
背景情况:
- * 数字模型预测由于海洋温度上升而导致热带气旋 (TC) 的强化.
- 由于数据的局限性,在全球范围内,除了北大西洋地区,观察到的TC强度趋势仍在争论中.
- 基于卫星的强度估计通常是不准确的,受天气条件和海面现象的影响.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用高度准确的海洋流数据,研究热带气旋强度的观察趋势.
- * 确定1991年至2020年间全球弱热带气旋是否加剧.
- * 为评估气候模型和预测提供可靠的历史基准.
主要方法:
- 通过装有潜水器的水面漂流器收集的广泛而准确的海流数据.
- 在15米深处使用专门的"圣"药物,以最大限度地减少空海接口偏差.
- *分析了近地电流速度,以推断全球TC强度的趋势.
主要成果:
- 在1991年至2020年期间,弱热带气旋 (热带风暴) 在所有海洋盆地都加剧.
- 观察到每十年大约4.0厘米/秒的全球海流速度上升趋势.
- * 表示TC强度的相应正向趋势为每十年1.8m/s,影响整个强度分布.
结论:
- 这项研究证实全球弱热带气旋的强化趋势.
- * 这些发现突显了当前气候模型在复制观察到的TC强度趋势方面的不足.
- 建立了未来气候模型验证和TC研究的关键历史基准.
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