世卫组织估计,与COVID-19大流行相关的过度死亡率
在PubMed上查看摘要
概括
此摘要是机器生成的。2020-2021年,COVID-19大流行导致全球估计有1483万多例死亡,远远超过报告中的COVID-19死亡人数. 这项研究量化了大流行
科学领域
- 流行病学和公共卫生
- 生物统计学
- 全球卫生安全
背景情况
- 由于检测,诊断和死亡证明不一致,官方的COVID-19死亡数据往往不可靠.
- 疫情的影响超出了直接的COVID-19死亡,造成了显著的附带损害.
研究的目的
- 通过估计2020年和2021年的过度死亡,提供综合和一致的COVID-19流行病影响测量.
- 为了解决报告的COVID-19死亡人数数据的局限性.
主要方法
- 使用波桑计数框架与贝叶斯推理估计每月所有死因.
- 应用统计建模来预测数据不完整的地区的死亡.
- 过度死亡估计的量化不确定性.
主要成果
- 据估计,在2020-2021年期间,全球发生了1483万例过度死亡.
- 这个数字是由于COVID-19而直接报告的542万死亡人数的2.74倍.
- 在世卫组织各地区的过度死亡估计中观察到显著差异.
结论
- 过度死亡率比报告的COVID-19死亡人数更准确地衡量了大流行病的真实影响.
- 强调全球需要改善死亡数据的收集和报告.
- 根据现有数据,在比较各国的流行病反应时应谨慎.
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