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湿地排放和大气沉变化解释了2020年的甲增长
Shushi Peng1,2,3, Xin Lin4, Rona L Thompson5
1Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China. speng@pku.edu.cn.
Nature
|December 14, 2022
概括
由于自然湿地排放量增加和大气沉降弱,大气中甲水平在2020年意外上升. 这突显了甲对气候变化的敏感性,以及在减排工作中需要考虑氧化的趋势.
科学领域:
- 大气化学和气候科学.
- 环境监测和分析
背景情况:
- 大气中的甲度在2020年出现了前所未有的增长,达到每年10亿分之15.1±0.4.
- 尽管COVID-19封锁期间可能会减少人为甲排放,但这种激增发生了.
研究的目的:
- 与2019年相比,在2020年量化甲来源和大气沉的变化.
- 确定2020年异常甲增长率的主要驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 全球甲排放的分析,区分人为,火灾和湿地来源.
- 量化大气甲流域的变化,特别是基 (OH) 的度.
- 使用大气逆转模型推断净排放和消除率.
主要成果:
- 全球人为甲排放量减少了1.2 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr-1,火灾排放量减少了6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr-1.
- 湿地甲排放量显著增加6.0 ± 2.3 Tg
- 热层OH度降低了1. 6±0. 2%,导致甲去除量减少了7. 5±0. 8 Tg.
- 总体净排放量增加了6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1,这是由于OH流量下降了53 ± 10%,自然排放量增加了47 ± 16%.
结论:
- 2020年甲增速异常主要是由于大气下沉 (OH) 的减少和自然湿地排放的增加.
- 湿地甲排放对更温暖和更潮湿的气候表现出敏感性,可能会产生积极的反循环.
- 在全球甲减排战略中必须考虑氧化 (NOx) 排放趋势.
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