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随着时间的推移, 文件和专利变得不那么具有破坏性
Michael Park1, Erin Leahey2, Russell J Funk3
1Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Nature
|January 4, 2023
概括
科学和技术进步正在放缓, 越来越少的论文和专利引入了新的想法. 这种颠覆性的下降与现有知识的更狭窄的使用有关,这表明创新发生了根本性的转变.
科学领域:
- 研究科学和技术变革的动态.
- 分析多个领域的研究和创新趋势.
背景情况:
- 传统理论认为,积累的知识推动了科学技术的进步.
- 科学产出的指数增长表明条件为重大进步成熟.
- 然而,有证据表明几个关键学科的进展正在放缓.
研究的目的:
- 分析科学和技术进步在规模上的减缓.
- 量化60年来科学论文和专利的影响力.
- 确定有助于观察到的创新趋势的因素.
主要方法:
- 在六个大数据集中利用了4500万篇论文和390万项专利的数据.
- 为了评估引用网络的变化,使用了一种新的定量指标 - - CD指数.
- 使用多个引用和基于文本的指标验证的结果.
主要成果:
- 论文和专利越来越少与现有知识分离.
- 这种破坏性的下降是所有领域都能观察到的普遍模式.
- 这种趋势与利用先前的科学和技术知识的缩小有关.
结论:
- 破坏速度的放缓可能标志着科学和技术进步的根本性转变.
- 观察到的下降不太可能是由于出版品质量的变化,引用实践或特定领域的问题.
- 通过强调更狭窄的知识基础,与"巨人的肩膀"概念相协调.
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