评估埃克森美的全球变暖预测
G Supran1, S Rahmstorf2,3, N Oreskes1,4
1Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
概括
化石燃料公司埃克森美准确地预测了1977年至2003年的全球变暖趋势, 然而, 他们的公开声明与他们自己的气候科学数据相矛盾.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
- 能源行业分析
背景情况:
- 化石燃料行业的内部气候变化预测尚未得到评估.
- 了解企业的气候预测对于评估历史气候科学传播至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估埃克森和埃克森美科学家在1977年至2003年的全球变暖预测.
- 将埃克森美的气候模型与独立的学术和政府模型进行比较.
主要方法:
- 分析了埃克森和埃克森美公司的内部记录和科学文件.
- 气候预测的定量评估,包括全球变暖预测和检测时间表.
- 公司预测与随后的观测数据和独立气候模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 埃克森美的内部气候预测准确地预测了全球变暖,
- 公司的预测与独立的学术和政府气候模型一样巧妙.
- 埃克森美的科学家正确预测了人类造成的全球变暖,并估计了将全球变暖限制在2°C的碳预算.
结论:
- 埃克森美拥有准确的内部气候变化知识和预测能力.
- 埃克森美内部科学数据与其关于气候变化的公开信息之间存在重大差异.
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