未来的极端温度威胁着陆地脊椎动物
Gopal Murali1,2, Takuya Iwamura3,4, Shai Meiri5,6
1Jacob Blaustein Center for Scientific Cooperation, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel. murali@post.bgu.ac.il.
Nature
|January 18, 2023
概括
全球变暖将使41%的陆地脊椎动物在高排放的情况下在2099年受到极端高温的影响. 迫切需要减少温室气体排放, 以减少全球物种的严重热压力.
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,极端热事件的频率,持续时间和强度都在增加.
- 极端温度对生物系统的影响很大,但对物种的全球暴露数据缺乏.
- 了解物种和地点对未来极端热的脆弱性对于保护工作至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为陆地脊椎动物提供未来极端热事件暴露的全面评估.
- 根据各种温室气体排放情况,量化陆地脊椎动物物种的百分比及其分布.
- 确定最容易受到未来极端热事件的影响的地理区域和生物群.
主要方法:
- 利用1950年至2099年的每日最高温度数据来建模未来的极端温度.
- 在不同共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 排放场景中评估哺乳动物,鸟类,两动物和爬行动物的暴露水平.
- 量化到2099年物种分布的比例和暴露于极端热事件的持续时间.
主要成果:
- 在高排放场景下 (SSP5-8.5),到2099年,至少一半的陆地脊椎动物将面临超过历史水平的暴露.
- 两动物 (55.5%) 和爬行动物 (51.0%) 的预测暴露率最高,其次是哺乳动物 (31.1%) 和鸟类 (25.8%).
- 中度生物群 (沙漠,灌木,草原) 预计会比热带地区遭受更严重的暴露.
结论:
- 未来的极端热事件对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁,可能对许多物种造成持续严重的热压力.
- 低排放的未来 (SSP1-2.6) 可以大大减少脊椎动物的暴露,防止许多物种组合的严重影响.
- 迫切需要大幅减少温室气体排放,以减轻陆地脊椎动物对极端热应激的广泛暴露.
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