在全球土地碳汇中诊断不稳定风险
Marcos Fernández-Martínez1,2,3, Josep Peñuelas4,5, Frederic Chevallier6
1PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium. m.fernandez@creaf.uab.cat.
Nature
|February 22, 2023
概括
全球净土地碳吸收 (NBP) 增加,但由于气候变化,其变化在区域上升,可能会破坏碳汇的稳定性. 自相关性已经减少,表明碳循环反应更快.
科学领域:
- 全球碳循环研究
- 气候变化对陆地生态系统的影响
- 大气科学和生物地质化学
背景情况:
- 全球净土地碳吸收 (NBP) 在最近几十年里有所增加.
- 在NBP的时间变化和自相关性上的变化很少被理解,但对于评估碳汇稳定性至关重要.
- 可变性和自相关性增加可能标志着陆地碳汇不稳定.
研究的目的:
- 调查1981年至2018年的陆地净碳吸收趋势.
- 分析 NBP 的时间变化和自身相关性.
- 确定控制NBP变化的关键因素,特别是气候变化的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用两个大气逆转模型来估计全球NBP.
- 从九个太平洋监测站分析了大气二氧化碳度季节周期的幅度.
- 综合动态全球植被模型进行综合分析.
主要成果:
- 全年NBP及其十年间变异性增加,而时间自相关性下降.
- 区域分析显示了不同的模式:一些地区的NBP变化与更温暖,更可变的温度有关,而其他地区的NBP变化较强,变化较小.
- 植物物种的丰富性与NBP及其可变性有着类似的关系;沉积通常会增强NBP.
结论:
- 气候变化,特别是气温上升和气候变化的变化,主要导致地区NBP变化增加.
- 这些发现表明碳气候系统的潜在不稳定.
- 观察到的自相关性下降表明陆地碳循环对环境变化的反应更快.
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