年龄的增长威胁着中国小农业的可持续性
Chenchen Ren1,2,3, Xinyue Zhou4, Chen Wang1,3
1College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Nature
|February 22, 2023
概括
农村人口老龄化导致农场规模和农业产量减少, 转向合作农业模式可以扭转这些负面影响,促进可持续农业.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学
- 人口统计
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 人口快速老龄化对社会经济发展,粮食安全和农业可持续性产生重大影响.
- 农村人口老龄化对农业实践和结果的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 量化农村人口老龄化对农场规模,农业投入,产出,劳动生产率和农民收入的影响.
- 评估老龄化导致的农业实践变化的环境影响.
- 评估新农业模式的潜力,以减轻农村老龄化带来的负面影响.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自中国15,000多个农村家庭的数据 (作物,没有牲畜).
- 当前和基准 (1990年) 人口年龄结构之间的农场规模,土地使用,农业投入,产出和农民收入的比较.
- 模拟到2100年过渡到新的农业模式的潜在影响.
主要成果:
- 农村人口老龄化使得农场规模减少了4% (约2万平方公里). 农业投入,产出和劳动生产率分别下降了5%和4%.
- 农民收入下降了15%,而肥料损失和污染物排放增加了3%.
- 新的农业模式,如合作农业,显示出更大的农场,更好的管理和增加农民收入的潜力.
结论:
- 农村人口老龄化对中国的农业可持续性和农民生计产生了负面影响.
- 转向合作农业模式可以扭转这些负面趋势,从而增加农业投入,农场规模,农民收入,减少环境污染.
- 有效管理农村老龄化对于将小农转变为可持续农业至关重要.
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