海洋气候变化威胁着亚洲水塔的可持续性
Qiang Zhang1,2,3, Zexi Shen4,5, Yadu Pokhrel6
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. zhangq68@bnu.edu.cn.
Nature
|March 1, 2023
概括
高山亚洲的水资源面临越来越多的威胁. 气候变化和气候变暖正在扩大西藏高原的储水缺口,
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学
- 气候学
- 水文学
背景情况:
- 高山亚洲 (HMA),特别是西藏高原 (TP),对于区域水资源至关重要,通常被称为"亚洲的水塔".
- 在TP中观察到的陆地储水 (TWS) 不同质的趋势缺乏明确的机制理解.
- 在HMA的水压力影响数百万,突出需要了解TWS的动态.
研究的目的:
- 调查驱动TP中异质TWS趋势的机制.
- 将TWS变化归因于特定的大气和气候因素.
- 在不同的排放场景下预测未来的TWS变化.
主要方法:
- 使用拉格朗的粒子分散模型来追踪大气中的水分传输.
- 使用卫星观测来分析2003-2016年和2020-2021年陆地水储量变化.
- 分析了降水减蒸发 (PME) 缺陷及其传播.
主要成果:
- 北大西洋的西部风带来的 PME 缺口导致南方的 TWS 减少了约 1 Gt / 月 (2003-2016).
- 由于HMA山脉最初阻了PME的赤字,导致中央TP每月增加约0.5Gt.
- 由于气候变暖导致的融化和干燥削弱了HMA的阻断作用,自2009年以来,TP TWS赤字向北扩大.
结论:
- 由于大气湿度转移和区域变暖, 热带水系统正在趋向于不可持续的条件.
- 未来的预测显示,在各种排放场景下,到21世纪末,在整个运输过程中将出现广泛的TWS赤字.
- 严重的下游水资源压力是一个重大风险, 影响数百万依赖HMA水资源.
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