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随着气候变化而导致的全球性干旱
Xing Yuan1,2, Yumiao Wang1,2, Peng Ji1,2
1School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China.
概括
全球因气候变化而出现的快速干旱正在迅速增加, 这种趋势表明,极端天气事件的发生速度越来越快,迫切需要采取适应策略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 极端天气事件
- 干旱研究
背景情况:
- 快速发作的突发干旱对干旱监测和预测构成重大挑战.
- 关于快速干旱是否成为新常态的争论仍在进行中,
研究的目的:
- 调查全球干旱加剧率的观察趋势和转向突发干旱的情况.
- 确定干旱特征观察到的变化背后的气候因素.
- 在不同的排放场景下预测未来干旱发生率的变化.
主要方法:
- 对过去64年全球74%地区 (IPCC地区) 的历史气候数据进行分析.
- 对季节性干旱加剧率的评估
- 将干旱变化与人为气候变化联系在一起的归因分析,重点关注蒸发和降水异常.
主要成果:
- 干旱加剧的速度在季后时间表上加快.
- 在过去64年中,全球74%的地区出现了更频繁的突发干旱.
- 由人为气候变化带来的扩大蒸发和降水不足与此过渡有关.
结论:
- 在全球范围内, 快速干旱变得越来越普遍, 表明干旱动态的转变.
- 人为气候变化是加速干旱发生和加剧的关键因素.
- 未来的预测表明,这种转型将扩大到大多数陆地地区,而更高的排放量将加剧这一趋势,强调需要采取紧急适应措施.
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