厄尔尼诺对全球经济增长的持续影响
Christopher W Callahan1,2, Justin S Mankin1,2,3,4
1Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment and Society, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA.
概括
厄尔尼诺 - 南方振荡 (ENSO) 持续损害经济增长,造成全球收入损失数万亿美元. 未来的气候变化可能会加剧ENSO,导致21世纪的经济损失.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 环境经济学
- 全球社会经济影响
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺 - 南方振荡 (ENSO) 是全球极端天气和社会经济影响的主要驱动因素.
- 经济复苏模式和人为气候变化对ENSO经济后果的影响在很大程度上是未知的.
研究的目的:
- 量化ENSO事件对国家经济增长的经济影响.
- 在各种气候变化场景下预测未来的经济损失.
- 评估经济对气候变化和人为ENSO强化的敏感性.
主要方法:
- 对ENSO历史事件及其对国家经济的影响进行计量分析.
- 在未来气候变化和排放场景下进行经济建模.
- 对ENSO事件序列及其经济后果的随机分析.
主要成果:
- 厄尔尼诺现象对国家经济增长持续产生负面影响.
- 据估计,1982-83年和1997-98年的厄尔尼诺事件导致全球收入损失分别为4.1万亿美元和5.7万亿美元.
- 根据目前的减缓承诺,因ENSO加剧而造成的21世纪经济损失可能达到84万亿美元,受事件序列变化的影响.
结论:
- 全球经济对气候变化高度敏感, 独立于长期变暖趋势.
- 人类造成的ENSO加剧构成未来全球经济损失的重大威胁.
- 了解和减轻气候变化对于避免极端天气事件造成重大经济损失至关重要.
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