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机器学习模型 Aedes albopictus 在21世纪的息地适合性
Pantelis Georgiades1,2, Yiannis Proestos1, Jos Lelieveld1,3
1Environmental Predictions Department, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, Cyprus Institute, 2121 Nicosia, Cyprus.
Insects
|May 26, 2023
概括
由于气候变化,入侵性亚洲老虎蚊 (Aedes albopictus) 正在全球范围内扩大其息地. 到2050年,这种扩张将使数十亿人面临着登革热和寨卡病毒等树木病毒疾病的风险.
科学领域:
- 媒介性疾病生态学 媒介性疾病生态学
- 气候变化对疾病载体的影响
- 机器学习在流行病学中的应用.
背景情况:
- 虫 (Aedes albopictus) 是一种高度入侵的蚊子物种,也是树虫病毒的重要载体.
- 气候和社会经济变化正在推动载体息地的扩张.
- 这种扩张加剧了载体传播疾病的全球负担,如登革热, chikungunya 和 Zika.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测全球息地适合性转变的艾迪斯白斑.
- 评估气候和社会经济变化对载体范围扩展的潜在影响.
- 为了确定高风险地区,以增加载体传播疾病的传播.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个集体机器学习模型,将随机森林和XGBoost分类器结合起来.
- 使用全球载体监测数据训练模型.
- 整合了广泛的气候和环境约束,以预测息地的适宜性.
主要成果:
- 合奏模型在预测Aedes albopictus存在方面表现出可靠的性能.
- 预计全球适合息地的显著扩张,特别是在北半球.
- 确定了人口密的地区,包括美国,欧洲和印度的部分地区,作为本世纪末潜在的未来息地.
结论:
- 到21世纪中叶,至少还有10亿人可能面临载体传播疾病的风险.
- 对潜在的入境点而言,协调的预防性监控工作至关重要.
- 需要采取积极的措施,以减轻Aedes albopictus扩散和相关疾病日益增长的威胁.
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