应急部门的早期预警软件 拥挤的紧急情况
Jalmari Tuominen1, Teemu Koivistoinen2, Juho Kanniainen3
1Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland. jalmari.tuominen@tuni.fi.
Journal of medical systems
|May 26, 2023
概括
紧急情况 (ED) 部门的拥挤对患者安全构成风险. 早期预警软件使用统计模型准确预测ED拥挤情况,从而实现更好的资源管理和改善患者的治疗结果.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
- 紧急医疗 紧急医疗
背景情况:
- 紧急诊所 (ED) 拥挤是患者安全的一个重大问题,与死亡率的增加有关.
- 准确的需求预测对于资源管理和改善患者护理至关重要,但实际应用落后于研究.
- 现有的研究突出了对ED拥挤的预测模型在现实世界中实施的需要.
研究的目的:
- 介绍未来预警软件的初步发现,用于预测急诊室拥挤情况.
- 评估软件生成实时拥挤预测的能力.
- 评估短期和中期拥挤预测的准确性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个潜在的拥挤预警软件,并与医院数据库集成.
- 实时预测是在5个月的时间内每小时生成一次,在北欧联合ED.
- 霍尔特-温特斯的季节性方法和简单的统计模型被用于预测.
主要成果:
- 该软件在预测下一个小时拥挤时取得了很高的准确性 (AUC = 0.94).
- 对24小时拥挤的预测也显示出显著的准确性 (AUC = 0.79).
- 下午拥挤在下午1点是可以预测的,AUC为0.84.
结论:
- 开发的软件显示了对ED拥挤的强有力的预测能力.
- 实时预测可以支持紧急部门的积极资源管理.
- 这种方法有可能减轻与ED拥挤相关的风险,并提高患者安全.
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