当增加蔬菜生产可能会加剧粮食供应差距时:印度的一个模拟模型
Marie L Spiker1,2, Joel Welling3, Daniel Hertenstein2
1Nutritional Sciences Program and Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, United States.
Food policy
|May 26, 2023
概括
在资源较低的环境中增加园艺生产可能会使粮食供应恶化并增加损失. 必须加强供应链,以处理大量易腐作物,以提高粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
- 粮食安全 粮食安全
背景情况:
- 农业政策往往侧重于提高作物产量,而没有充分评估供应链能力.
- 低资源的食品供应链在处理易腐烂的园艺作物的增加量方面面临重大挑战.
- 印度的奥迪沙州是发展中国家常见的蔬菜供应链漏洞的一个例子.
研究的目的:
- 评估增加蔬菜生产对低资源环境中的食品供应链的影响.
- 评估提高园艺生产率如何影响需求满足和收获后损失.
- 确定印度奥迪沙州蔬菜供应链中的关键限制.
主要方法:
- 开发和应用一个离散事件模拟模型.
- 对关键蔬菜 (土豆,洋,西红,,白菜) 的产量增加情景 (1.25-5倍基线) 的分析.
- 评估对零售需求满足和收获后损失率的影响.
主要成果:
- 增加的产量导致消费者可用性的不成比例的小增长 (需求满足率波动+3%至-4%).
- 较高的产量显著增加了收获后损失,特别是在批发到批发贸易中.
- 翻倍生产导致供应链损失增加了19%,而需求满足增加了3%.
结论:
- 提高农业生产力的努力必须与改善供应链能力相结合,以避免加剧粮食不安全.
- 供应链干预需要考虑不同易腐烂蔬菜的具体限制.
- 加强沟通和贸易网络至关重要,并为弹性供应链进行结构性改进.
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