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在孟加拉国使用CMIP6 GCM预测未来降水和空气温度的变化
Mohammad Kamruzzaman1, Shahriar Wahid2, Shamsuddin Shahid3
1Farm Machinery and Postharvest Technology Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur, 1701, Bangladesh.
Heliyon
|May 26, 2023
概括
孟加拉国未来气候预测显示,所有情景中降水和温度都将大幅增加. 这些变化,特别是极端高温和降雨模式变化的增加,迫切需要适应战略,以减轻环境和社会风险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境建模环境建模
- 南亚气象 南亚气象
背景情况:
- 了解降水和温度的时空变化对于环境危害评估和气候变化适应至关重要.
- 孟加拉国由于其地理位置和社会经济因素,极易受到气候变化影响.
研究的目的:
- 预测孟加拉国年度,季节性和月度降水量,最大空气温度 (Tmax) 和最小空气温度 (Tmin) 的未来变化.
- 根据四个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 评估这些预测,用于近期,中期和远期的未来时期.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自合模型相互比较项目的第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的18个全球气候模型 (GCM).
- 使用简单量子映射 (SQM) 技术对GCM输出进行偏差校正.
- 在SSP1-2.6 ,SSP2-4.5 ,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5场景下的预测中分析了多模型合并 (MME) 的平均值.
主要成果:
- 在SSP5-8.5.5.下,预计在遥远的未来,平均年降水量将增加30.90%,Tmax (Tmin) 将增加2.99°C (3.69°C).
- 发现了显著的季节性变化,包括季风后降水量大幅增加和在特定情景下降低冬季降水量.
- 在所有季节和情景中,最低温度 (Tmin) 预计将比最高温度 (Tmax) 提升得更快.
结论:
- 预计孟加拉国的气候变化表明洪水,山体滑坡和对人类健康,农业和生态系统的不利影响的风险增加.
- 该研究强调,需要制定本地化和特定环境的适应策略,以应对不同的区域影响.
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