使用融合交叉映射推断环境因素和呼吸道感染之间的因果关系
Daipeng Chen1,2, Xiaodan Sun1, Robert A Cheke3
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|May 27, 2023
概括
像空气质量这样的环境因素会影响呼吸道感染. 这项研究使用了更新的因果推断方法来确认空气质量指数 (AQI),温度和湿度对日常流感病例的影响,AQI显示11天的延迟效果.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 因果推理因果推理
背景情况:
- 呼吸道感染受环境因素的影响,空气污染是一个重大问题.
- 在空气污染和呼吸道感染之间建立因果关系仍然具有挑战性.
- 现有的因果推断方法需要改进,以分析定期的环境和健康数据.
研究的目的:
- 更新和验证周期变量因果推理程序.
- 调查环境因素和呼吸道感染之间的因果关系.
- 量化空气质量,温度和湿度对流感类疾病 (ILI) 病例的影响.
主要方法:
- 扩展融合交叉映射 (CCM) 的理论分析和程序更新.
- 使用来自数学模型的合成数据进行验证.
- 应用于来自中国西省 (2010-2016) 的现实世界数据.
- 波形分析以确认ILI病例的周期性,AQI,温度和湿度.
主要成果:
- 经过改进的CCM方法被证实适用于分析周期性环境和健康数据.
- 发现空气质量指数 (AQI),温度和湿度显著影响每日LI病例.
- 随着AQI的上升,呼吸道感染病例的逐渐增加被观察到,显示出11天的时间滞后.
结论:
- 更新的CCM方法提供了一个强大的方法来推断周期性环境和健康变量之间的因果关系.
- 环境因素,特别是空气污染,在呼吸道感染的发病率中起着可证明的因果作用.
- 公共卫生战略应考虑空气质量对呼吸道疾病负担的延迟影响.
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