基于因素分析和中国灰色预测模型的气候因素的识别和预测
Shudong Lin1, Kai Wei1, Qingyuan Lei1
1State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an, 710048, China.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|May 29, 2023
概括
中国的气候因素表现出强烈的相关性,表面温度和降水显著影响恶劣天气. 预计未来的气候趋势将保持稳定,随着对流可用潜在能源的减少.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 预测气候变化影响对于生物多样性,农业和生态安全至关重要.
- 了解时空气候因素分布对于区域适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析和预测中国关键气候因素的时空特征.
- 确定影响恶劣天气和气候变化趋势的主要气候因素.
- 为气候变化缓解和适应提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 对历史气候数据 (1950-2020) 应用的因子分析和灰色模型 (GM (1,1)).
- 对表面压力,温度,风速,降水,湿度,蒸发透气,太阳辐射,紫外线强度,阳光持续时间和CAPE的分析.
- 气候因素的时空分布和未来变化预测.
主要成果:
- 在气候因素中发现了强烈的相关性;表面温度,降水和湿度是恶劣天气的关键驱动因素.
- 降雨量,湿度,太阳辐射,紫外线强度和阳光持续时间是气候变化的主要指标.
- 综合因素得分最高的省份包括黑龙江,内蒙古和青海.
- 预计未来30年,中国的气候因素将保持稳定,CAPE将有所下降.
结论:
- 气候因素分析为恶劣天气模式和气候变化提供了洞察力.
- 这些发现支持环境,生态和农业系统的风险减轻和弹性增强.
- 这项研究为中国的气候变化适应提供了科学基础.
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