一个基于COVID-19数据的试点预测模型,以间接评估自杀想法
Polona Rus Prelog1, Teodora Matić2, Peter Pregelj3
1University Psychiatric Clinic Ljubljana, Centre for Clinical Psychiatry, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Journal of psychiatric research
|May 29, 2023
概括
随着COVID-19的流行,心理上的痛苦增加了. 这项研究确定了自我责怪和关系不满等因素,这些因素可以间接帮助选自杀念头 (SI).
科学领域:
- 精神病学是一个精神病学.
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- COVID-19 疫情对全球心理健康产生了负面影响.
- 研究表明,心理困扰和自杀念头 (SI) 的比例正在上升.
- 需要有谨慎的方法来识别有SI风险的个人.
研究的目的:
- 用间接指标估计SI的存在.
- 确定与SI相关的人口和心理因素.
- 评估用于SI预测的机器学习算法.
主要方法:
- 通过在线调查 (2020年7月-2021年1月) 从斯洛文尼亚1790名受访者收集数据.
- 使用机器学习算法 (逻辑回归,随机森林,XGBoost,SVM) 来预测SI.
- 分析了应对策略 (简要COPE),生活满意度,人口统计和SI之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 机器学习模型 (逻辑回归,随机森林,XGBoost) 的AUC达到0.83.
- 对SI的关键指标包括自责,增加的物质使用,低的积极重构,行为脱离,关系不满和年轻的年龄.
- 9.7%的受访者报告了SI.
结论:
- 使用间接指标,SI可以以合理的准确度进行估计.
- 鉴定出来的因素显示出开发一种自杀倾向的谨慎查工具的潜力.
- 对于被确定为有风险的个人,建议进行进一步的临床检查.
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