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山区城市生态风险的时空模式和多场景模拟:在中国重庆的一项案例研究
Zhaoyang Wang1, Junyi Zhang2,3, Haiyi Li1
1School of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing, 401331, China.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|May 30, 2023
概括
通过结合模拟模型改善了山区的生态风险管理. 可持续发展方案为城市规划提供了最佳的土地利用结构和生态风险减缓.
科学领域:
- 生态风险评估 生态风险评估
- 景观生态学 景观生态学
- 空间规划 空间规划 空间规划
背景情况:
- 山区可持续地利用土地资源对于生态稳定至关重要.
- 生态风险管理需要对景观变化的准确评估和模拟.
- 中国的重庆作为评估景观生态风险 (LER) 的案例研究.
研究的目的:
- 构建和验证一个景观生态风险 (LER) 评估模型.
- 分析1995年至2020年重庆LER模式的时空演变.
- 通过结合建模方法,在各种发展场景下模拟未来的LER模式.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个景观生态风险 (LER) 评估模型.
- 利用1995-2020年土地使用数据进行时空空间分析.
- 将补丁生成土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型与多目标编程 (MOP) 结合起来,用于场景模拟.
主要成果:
- 重庆的LER演变呈现出不同的阶段,高风险地区正在减少并从西向东转移.
- LER的空间聚类与风险水平有很强的相关性.
- 可持续发展 (SD) 情景表明,与经济驱动的情景相比,土地利用结构均衡,生态风险降低.
结论:
- 结合的PLUS-MOP模型有效地优化了土地利用模式,以减轻生态风险.
- 这些发现为山区的可持续城市发展提供了科学基础.
- 该研究强调了将生态考虑纳入土地利用规划的重要性.
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