在COVID-19大流行期间,全球金融周期和资本流动
1Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, United States of America.
概括
全球金融周期在COVID-19大流行期间显著影响了汇率和资本流动. 具体国家因素,包括COVID-19病例和疫苗接种率,解释了对全球金融周期波动的异质反应.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际金融 国际金融
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19大流行,全球金融市场出现了前所未有的波动.
- 了解汇率和资本流动波动的驱动因素对于经济稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计全球金融周期 (GFC) 在COVID-19大流行期间对汇率和跨境资本流动的异质影响.
- 以每周的频率分析GFC对金融市场的影响的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了59个发达和新兴市场经济体的每周汇率和投资组合流量数据.
- 构建了一个每周的全球金融周期 (GFC) 指数.
- 汇率和资本流动对GFC波动的估计特定国家敏感性.
主要成果:
- 在疫情期间,GFC对汇率和资本流动的解释能力显著增加.
- 在对GFC波动的反应中观察到实质性的跨国异质性.
- 发现高频率指标 (COVID-19病例,疫苗接种率) 在解释异质性方面与传统宏观经济基本面同样重要.
结论:
- 全球金融周期在推动汇率和资本流动动态方面发挥着关键作用,尤其是在危机期间.
- 与流行病相关的高频数据对于了解特定国家的金融市场反应至关重要.
- 政策干预需要考虑全球金融周期和特定国家的脆弱性.
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