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使用机器学习与马测试预测非多年生河流中的分阶段排放情况
Dinesh Kumar Vishwakarma1, Alban Kuriqi2,3, Salwan Ali Abed4
1Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar, Uttarakhand, 263145, India.
Heliyon
|May 30, 2023
概括
通过机器学习优化分阶段排放等级曲线,特别是线性回归减少误差修剪树 (LR-REPTree) 模型,可显著提高水资源管理和洪水预警的排放估计精度.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源工程 水文和水资源工程
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学和机器学习应用程序数据科学和机器学习应用程序
背景情况:
- 准确的阶段性排放评级曲线对于洪水预警系统和水资源管理至关重要.
- 连续放电测量通常是不可行的,需要可靠的阶段-放电关系来进行估计.
- 传统方法可能缺乏精确水文建模所需的准确性.
研究的目的:
- 为了优化阶段放电等级曲线,使用通用降低梯度 (GRG) 溶解器.
- 用机器学习技术评估混合线性回归 (LR) 模型的准确性和适用性.
- 为了比较各种模型在模拟高拉水阶段-排放关系中的性能.
主要方法:
- 混合线性回归模型的开发和测试:LR-随机子空间 (LR-RSS),LR-减少错误修剪树 (LR-REPTree),LR-支持矢量机 (LR-SVM) 和LR-M5修剪 (LR-M5P).
- 利用了12年历史的每日分期排放数据,这些数据来自高拉水在季风季节 (六月至十月) 的排放数据.
- 使用马测试来确定最佳的输入变量组合和各种统计指标 (NSE,d,KGE,MAE,RMSE等). 用于绩效评估.
主要成果:
- 与GRG,LR,LR-RSS,LR-SVM和LR-M5P模型相比,LR-REPTree模型在所有输入组合中表现出卓越的性能.
- 混合LR模型,包括LR-REPTree,显著优于传统的阶段放电评级曲线和GRG方法.
- 对于LR-REPTree (组合1) 的特定性能指标包括NSE=0.993,d=0.998,KGE=0.987,PCC(r)=0.997,R2=0.994,RMSE=0.109,MAE=0.041.其中包括NSE=0.993,d=0.998,KGE=0.987,PCC(r)=0.997,R2=0.994,RMSE=0.109,MAE=0.041.
结论:
- 混合机器学习模型,特别是LR-REPTree,为阶段放电建模提供了更准确,更可靠的方法.
- 这些先进的模型为排放模拟提供了更高的准确性,这对于有效的水资源管理和洪水预测至关重要.
- 这些发现支持采用机器学习技术来改善自然流系统中的水文估计.
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