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气候变化对舒姆布里特小规模灌项目的影响,南戈贾姆子盆地,埃塞俄比亚
Tadege A Worku1, Tadele F Aman1, Melsew A Wubneh2
1Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia.
Heliyon
|May 30, 2023
概括
气候变化将增加灌用水需求,原因是气温上升和降雨量减少. 布赖特灌项目可能需要通过改变作物类型来适应,以确保可持续性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化显著改变了降水和温度模式.
- 灌用水需求与蒸发和降水水平密切相关.
- 评估气候变化对灌的影响对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对Shumbrite灌项目灌水需求的影响.
- 分析未来的气候场景 (RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5) 以及它们对水需求的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用CORDEX-非洲气候模拟 (MPI全球循环模型) 来获取降水和温度数据.
- 使用CROPWAT 8.0软件计算参考蒸发和灌水需求.
- 分析了基线时期 (1981-2005) 和未来时期 (2021-2045) 的数据.
主要成果:
- 在所有排放场景中,预计未来降水量下降,其中RCP2.6下降幅度最大 (-4.2%).
- 预计在未来情景下,平均年基准蒸发透气 (2.6%3.3%) 和灌用水需求 (0.74%8.4%) 的增长.
- 对番茄,马和胡等作物观察到更高的作物水需求.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将增加Shumbrite项目区域的灌用水需求.
- 建议采用适应策略,例如转向不太用水的作物,以确保项目的可持续性.
- 该研究强调了需要主动进行水资源管理,以应对不断变化的气候条件.
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