在对未来刑事司法系统参与的预测性风险评估中的队列偏见
Erika Montana1, Daniel S Nagin1, Roland Neil2
1Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213.
概括
由于队列偏差,风险评估工具 (RAI) 可能存在缺陷. 针对老年群体训练的工具过度预测年轻群体的风险,影响刑事司法和其他领域.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 风险评估工具 (RAI) 对刑事司法,医疗保健和儿童福利等领域的决策至关重要.
- 这些工具通常假设预测因素和结果之间随着时间的推移存在稳定的关系.
- 社会变化可能会违反这一假设,导致队列偏见.
研究的目的:
- 调查队列偏差对风险评估工具预测准确性的影响.
- 分析社会变化如何影响不同出生队伍的RAI可靠性.
- 确定队列偏见是否有助于刑事法律体系中的系统不平等.
主要方法:
- 一个队列顺序的纵向研究,分析儿童的犯罪史.
- 使用各种算法和预测器集开发和测试预测模型.
- 在1995-2020年期间,对不同出生队伍的模型性能进行评估.
主要成果:
- 风险评估工具系统地高估了与老年人相比,较年轻的出生队伍的逮捕可能性.
- 在不同的模型类型,预测器集和种族群体中观察到队列偏差.
- 这种偏见在相对和绝对风险预测中都很明显,特别是在高风险组中.
结论:
- 队列偏见是一个被低估的因素,导致刑事法律体系中的不平等,与种族偏见不同.
- 在RAI中假设时间不变的关系在动态的社会背景下是有问题的.
- 队列偏差对风险评估工具的广泛应用和公平性构成重大挑战.
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