全球电力部门的低碳转型可能有助于实现可持续发展目标
Kun Peng1, Kuishuang Feng2, Bin Chen3
1Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209, China.
Nature communications
|May 30, 2023
概括
低碳电力转型大大促进了可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 的进展,尤其是在雄心勃勃的气候情景下. 然而,它可能会通过贸易转移对资源相关的可持续发展目标和发展中国家产生负面影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学与环境政策
- 可持续发展研究 可持续发展研究
- 气候变化的经济学
背景情况:
- 全球向低碳能源的转变对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 这种转型影响了资源使用,排放,就业和可持续发展目标 (SDGs).
- 了解这些多方面的影响对于有效的政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估低碳电力转型对实现多个可持续发展目标的潜在影响.
- 在各种社会经济和气候场景下分析49个经济体的这些影响.
- 评估对所有17个可持续发展目标中的18个目标的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析权力过渡对可持续发展目标进展的影响.
- 在九个社会经济和气候场景中建模,包括代表性度途径 (RCP).
- 对49个经济体的影响评估,区分发达国家和发展中国家.
主要成果:
- 根据RCP2.6情景的低碳电力转型,到2100年,全球可持续发展目标指数可能会提高约11%.
- 在RCP6.0 (4.42%-7.40%) 和RCP4.5 (7.55%-8.93%) 场景下,改进有所减少.
- 发达经济体显示总体SDG改善,但与资源相关的得分可能下降;由于贸易转移,发展中国家经济体面临SDG进步的危险.
结论:
- 低碳电力转型为全球可持续发展目标的推进提供了巨大的潜力,取决于所选择的气候路径.
- 发达经济体可能会从整体上受益,但资源和贸易动态需要谨慎管理.
- 发展中经济体,通常是资源供应商,面临着对其可持续发展目标进展的风险,需要公平的过渡战略.
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