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使用土地变化建模器评估土地使用变化对德兹流域河水质量的影响
Mohammad Reza Goodarzi1, Amir Reza R Niknam2, S Hoda Rahmati3
1Department of Civil Engineering, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. Goodarzimr@yazd.ac.ir.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|May 31, 2023
概括
伊朗德兹河流域未来的土地使用变化将降低水质. 预计增加的农业和建筑面积将提高污染水平,到2030年将超过饮用水标准.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 由城市化和农业驱动的土地利用变化,在各种规模上显著影响水质.
- 伊朗的德兹河面临着由于土地使用模式不断变化的潜在水质退化.
研究的目的:
- 调查土地使用变化对德兹河水质的未来影响.
- 建模和预测土地使用变化及其对2030年河流水质的后续影响.
主要方法:
- 利用QUAL2Kw动态模型进行水质模拟,并与2013年和2019年的数据进行校准和验证.
- 采用土地变化建模器 (LCM) 和Landsat 8/OLI卫星图像 (2013,2016,2019) 来建模和预测土地使用变化.
- 使用卡帕系数评估模型准确性,在图像分类方面获得高分 (87-89%).
主要成果:
- QUAL2Kw模型在模拟Dez河水质方面表现出高准确度.
- 2030年的土地使用预测表明,农业用地,建筑区和水体的增加.
- 2030年的模拟预测,生化氧需求,化学氧需求和酸盐水平将超过允许的饮用水标准.
结论:
- 预计土地利用变化将对德兹河的水质产生负面影响,导致污染物水平升高.
- 频繁的水质监测和综合土地利用土地覆盖面 (LULC) 规划和管理对于减轻流域污染至关重要.
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