预测术后乳腺癌大脑转移的生存率和预后:基于人口的回顾性分析
Yan Nie1, Bicheng Ying1, Zinan Lu2
1Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China.
Chinese medical journal
|May 31, 2023
概括
这项研究开发了一种名ogram模型来预测乳腺癌脑转移患者的整体存活率. 该模型有效地将患者分为风险组,有助于评估生存率.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医学统计 医学统计
- 临床预测模型临床预测模型
背景情况:
- 乳腺癌经常转移到大脑,导致预后不佳.
- 在乳腺癌脑转移 (BCBM) 患者的整体生存期中开发准确的预测模型至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 构建和验证一种新的临床预测模型,用于术后乳腺癌脑转移 (BCBM) 患者的整体存活期 (OS).
- 评估开发模型在预测患者结果方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 310名BCBM患者的队列被用于培训和验证,另外还有来自SEER数据库的173名患者用于外部验证.
- 最小绝对收缩和选择运算符 (LASSO) 考克斯回归确定了关键预测因子,并构建了一个名组图来预测OS.
- 模型性能使用C指数,校准曲线和Kaplan-Meier生存分析来评估风险分层.
主要成果:
- 确定的关键预测因素包括淋巴结转移,分子亚型,瘤大小,化疗,放射治疗和肺转移.
- 诺米图表显示出良好的预测能力,C指数为0.714 (培训),0.710 (验证) 和0.670 (SEER队列).
- 风险分层系统显示,与高风险患者相比,低风险患者的生存状况明显更好 (P < 0.001).
结论:
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆预测模型有效预测手术后BCBM患者的整体存活率.
- 该模型为评估生存率和指导BCBM患者的临床决策提供了宝贵的见解.
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