安全和公正的地球系统边界
Johan Rockström1,2,3, Joyeeta Gupta4,5, Dahe Qin6,7,8
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany. johan.rockstrom@pik-potsdam.de.
Nature
|May 31, 2023
概括
人类的福祉和地球系统的稳定性是相互关联的,但往往是分开处理的. 这项研究量化了安全和公正的地球系统边界 (ESB),发现大多数已经被超越,威胁全球公共资源.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学
- 环境科学
- 星球健康
背景情况:
- 地球系统的稳定性和人类的福祉是相互关联的,但经常被孤立地研究.
- 这种相互依赖的不充分认识导致了独立的管理方法.
- 这种脱节会给环境和人类社会带来风险.
研究的目的:
- 在关键的地球系统组件中量化安全和公正的地球系统边界 (ESB).
- 将环境安全和人类正义的考虑纳入边界设置.
- 建立一个保护全球公共资源的定量基础.
主要方法:
- 使用先进的地球系统建模技术.
- 进行了全面的文献评估.
- 气候,生物圈,水,营养循环和气溶的全球和亚全球规模的量化ESB.
主要成果:
- 对于气候和大气气溶来说,正义的考虑比安全更有限制.
- 在全球8个安全和公正的ESB中,有7个已被超越.
- 在全球一半以上的土地上,至少有两个区域安全和公正的ESB被超越.
结论:
- 目前地球系统的边界已被大大超越, 表明存在重大风险.
- 整合安全和公正的ESB对于维持地球的弹性和人类的福祉至关重要.
- 这项研究为当代和后代管理全球公共资源提供了定量框架.
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