基于生活方式分析和早期结直肠癌风险因素的非侵入性预测模型
Jia-Wen Deng1, Yi-Lu Zhou1, Wei-Xing Dai2
1Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology; Shanghai Institute of Digestive Disease; NHC Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases; State Key Laboratory for Oncogenes and Related Genes; Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology
|June 1, 2023
概括
新的非侵入性模型可以预测中国成年人的早期结直肠癌 (EO-CRC). 经常食用甜食和油炸食品显著增加了EO-CRC的风险.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 预防医学 预防医学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 50岁以下的个人中结肠直肠癌 (CRC) 发病率正在上升.
- 早期发病的CRC (EO-CRC) 需要识别高风险因素和有针对性的查.
- 这项研究旨在开发预测模型并探索EO-CRC的风险因素.
研究的目的:
- 开发早期结直肠癌 (EO-CRC) 的非侵入性预测模型.
- 确定与EO-CRC相关的关键非遗传风险因素.
- 在独立的队列中验证模型性能.
主要方法:
- 在1756名患者 (811名EO-CRC,945名对照) 的回顾性多中心研究中.
- 收集关于社会人口统计,症状,病史,生活方式和饮食的数据.
- 开发和验证了多变量逻辑回归,随机森林和XGBoost模型.
主要成果:
- 三种非侵入性模型显示出良好的预测性能 (AUC 0.78-0.84).
- 大量的甜食和油炸食品消费 (每周≥3次) 与EO-CRC有显著的联系.
- 对甜食和油炸食品消费的调整后的偏差值分别为2.70和2.16.
结论:
- 成功建立了EO-CRC的非侵入性预测模型.
- 饮食因素,特别是甜食和油炸食品,是EO-CRC的重要非遗传风险因素.
- 开发的模型显示了预测中国人口中EO-CRC的前景.
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