什么时候消费者喜欢过于精确的关于投资回报的信息?
Eleonore Batteux1, Avri Bilovich1, Zarema Khon2
1Department of Clinical, Health and Educational Psychology, University College London.
Journal of experimental psychology. Applied
|June 1, 2023
概括
由于准确的回报数据,消费者经常误解投资不确定性. 准确的预测增加了投资信心,特别是当涉及到潜在的损失时,但这种偏好随着经验的增长而消失.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 消费者心理学 消费者心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 消费者经常遇到投资回报以高精度呈现.
- 这种精确性可能会掩盖投资固有的不确定性,导致误解.
- 过度依赖精确的数字信息可能会影响消费者投资决策.
研究的目的:
- 调查消费者是否被精确的投资预测所吸引.
- 确定精度是否抵消了投资决策中的感知不确定性.
- 确定影响消费者偏好精确与基于范围的预测的条件.
主要方法:
- 进行了五项激励实验,比较消费者在精确预测和范围之间的选择.
- 操纵了预期投资增长的呈现 (精确与范围).
- 在联合评估下评估的投资偏好,以及范围包括潜在损失时.
主要成果:
- 消费者更喜欢和投资于准确的预测,当与范围一起呈现时.
- 当范围包括潜在的损失时,这种偏好就加剧了,从而提高了投资信心.
- 即使参与者被告知投资不确定性,这种影响仍然存在.
- 经历预期和实际增长之间的差异减少了对准确预测的偏好.
结论:
- 准确的投资预测可以增强消费者信心和投资,特别是在特定条件下,如与范围和潜在损失框架的联合评估.
- 了解这些条件对于金融沟通和减轻潜在偏见至关重要.
- 预期和结果之间的差异是消除精确性吸引力的关键.
相关概念视频
01:31Confirmation Biases
5.5K
The confirmation bias is the tendency to focus on information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore information that is inconsistent with our expectations. For example, if you think that your professor is not very nice, you notice all of the instances of rude behavior exhibited by the professor while ignoring the countless pleasant interactions he is involved in on a daily basis. Have you ever fallen prey to the confirmation bias, either as the source or target of such bias?
5.5K
01:09Decision Making: P-value Method
5.5K
The process of hypothesis testing based on the P-value method includes calculating the P- value using the sample data and interpreting it.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
5.5K
01:25The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic
7.3K
In order to make good decisions, we use our knowledge and our reasoning. Often, this knowledge and reasoning is sound and solid. However, sometimes, we are swayed by biases or by others manipulating a situation. For example, let’s say you and three friends wanted to rent a house and had a combined target budget of $1,600. The realtor shows you only very run-down houses for $1,600 and then shows you a very nice house for $2,000. Might you ask each person to pay more in rent to get the...
7.3K
01:12Hindsight Biases
3.4K
Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?
3.4K
01:03Prediction Intervals
2.3K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.3K
01:52Accuracy and Precision
9.9K
Scientists typically make repeated measurements of a quantity to ensure the quality of their findings and to evaluate both the precision and the accuracy of their results. Measurements are said to be precise if they yield very similar results when repeated in the same manner. A measurement is considered accurate if it yields a result that is very close to the true or the accepted value. Precise values agree with each other; accurate values agree with a true value. Highly accurate...
9.9K