机构和资源诅咒:因果机器学习的新见解
Roland Hodler1,2,3,4, Michael Lechner5,6,7, Paul A Raschky8
1Department of Economics and SIAW-HSG, University of St. Gallen, St. Gallen, Switzerland.
PloS one
|June 1, 2023
概括
更强大的机构放大了采矿的经济效益,减少了冲突. 然而,全球矿产价格对发展和冲突的影响与撒哈拉以南非洲的机构实力几乎没有差异.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 发展研究 发展研究 研究
背景情况:
- 资源诅咒理论认为,自然资源的财富可以阻碍经济发展和燃料冲突.
- 机构质量经常被认为是资源财富是福还是祸的关键决定因素.
研究的目的:
- 重新评估机构质量与撒哈拉以南非洲自然资源租金的经济和冲突相关影响之间的关系.
- 调查采矿存在和全球矿产价格波动对当地发展和冲突的微妙影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自撒哈拉以南非洲地区3800个地区的数据.
- 应用因果森林估计器来分析因果关系.
主要成果:
- 更强大的机构增强了采矿活动的积极经济影响,并减轻了冲突.
- 世界矿产价格上对经济发展和冲突的影响是非线性的,对制度质量的依赖最小.
结论:
- 机构质量在调解采矿存在的影响方面发挥着关键作用,而不是全球价格冲击对当地结果的影响.
- 调查结果支持了细微的观点,即资源租金的影响取决于机构背景,特别是在直接资源开采活动中.
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