动态风险尺度随着时间的推移而退化:重新评估的证据
Seung C Lee1,2, Kelly M Babchishin2, Kimberly P Mularczyk2,3
1Public Safety Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Assessment
|June 2, 2023
概括
经常重新评估动态风险工具,如ACUTE-2007和STABLE-2007,可以提高司法人员的预测准确性. 最新的评估,最接近重犯事件,显示了最大的影响.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 法医心理学 法医心理学
- 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 动态风险评估工具对于评估司法相关人群的重犯风险至关重要.
- 建议经常重新评估,但经验数据对它们对预测准确度随时间推移的影响有限.
- ACUTE-2007和STABLE-2007是评估性复发风险的广泛使用的工具.
研究的目的:
- 调查动态风险评估,特别是ACUTE-2007和STABLE-2007的预测准确性如何随着时间的推移而变化.
- 确定重新评估频率对性犯罪复发风险预测准确性的影响.
- 为风险评估更新的最佳时间提供基于证据的建议.
主要方法:
- 使用了两个独立的社区监督男性样本 (NStudy 1 = 795;NStudy 2 = 4,221).
- 在不同时间间隔分析了ACUTE-2007和STABLE-2007风险工具的预测准确度.
- 检查的结果包括性行为,暴力行为和任何重犯行为 (包括技术违规行为).
主要成果:
- 重新评估始终提高了所有重复犯罪结果的预测准确性.
- 最新的评估,在时间上最接近复发事件,显示出最大的预测能力.
- 这些发现表明,在没有重新评估的情况下,随着时间的推移,预测准确度的下降.
结论:
- 定期重新评估对于保持动态风险工具的准确性至关重要.
- 建议重新评估间隔:每30天一次ACUTE-2007;每6个月一次STABLE-2007或重大生命变化后.
- 这些发现支持及时更新风险评估,以加强公共安全,并为纠正干预提供信息.
相关概念视频
01:23Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches
150
Biopharmaceutical studies constitute a vital field aiming to enhance drug delivery methods and refine therapeutic approaches, drawing upon diverse interdisciplinary knowledge. In research methodologies, the choice between controlled and non-controlled studies significantly influences the study's reliability and accuracy.
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
150
01:12Relative Risk
249
Relative risk (RR) is a statistical measure commonly used in epidemiology to compare the likelihood of a particular event occurring between two groups. This metric is important for evaluating the relationship between exposure to a specific risk factor and the probability of a particular outcome. It plays a crucial role in medical research, public health studies, and risk assessment. Relative risk quantifies how much more (or less) likely an event is to occur in an exposed group compared to an...
249
01:52Regression Toward the Mean
6.3K
Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
6.3K
01:03Data Validation
5.1K
Data validation is an essential part of a comprehensive assessment. Validation is confirming or verifying and opening the door to gathering more assessment data as it clarifies vague or unclear data. The process of checking and verifying the collected information is called data validation. The primary purpose of data validation is to ensure data is as free from error, bias, and misinterpretation as possible.
Nursing assessment guides are generally based on holistic models rather than medical...
Nursing assessment guides are generally based on holistic models rather than medical...
5.1K