从总结统计数据评估成本和效用参数的相关性,用于经济评估中的概率分析
Xuanqian Xie1, Alexis K Schaink1, Chengyu Gao2
1Health Technology Assessment Program, Ontario Health, Toronto, ON, Canada.
概括
本研究展示了如何使用总结统计数据计算经济模型输入之间的相关系数. 量化这些相关性可以提高成本效益分析和决策的精度.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 经济模型输入参数之间的相关性显著影响模型输出差异和预期值.
- 相关系数在科学文献中经常被遗漏,阻碍了可靠的概率分析.
- 了解这些相关性对于准确的经济评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发用于估计经济模型输入从总结统计数据之间的相关系数的方法.
- 为将参数相关性纳入概率灵敏度分析提供一个框架.
- 为了说明相关性对成本效益结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 证明样本平均值和相关随机变量的样本的皮尔森相关系数是相同的.
- 使用糖尿病足的低血糖发病率和成本组件的例子说明相关性估计.
- 介绍和演示用于估计效用参数相关性的方法.
主要成果:
- 从公布的总结统计数据中估计相关系数的证明方法.
- 评估了成本和效用参数之间的相关性对成本效益结果的影响,使用马尔科夫模型对重大抑郁症.
- 提供了用于估计健康经济模型中相关性的实际例子.
结论:
- 纳入参数相关性可以提高成本效益结果的精度.
- 改进的精度增加了对基于证据的决策的信心.
- 建议进行进一步的实证研究来验证这些发现.
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