1970年至2020年北欧和波罗的海国家恐怖袭击的流行病学分析
Harald De Cauwer1, Fredrik Granholm2, Amir Khorram-Manesh3
1Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; Department of Neurology, Sint-Dimpna Regional Hospital, Geel, Belgium.
Prehospital and disaster medicine
|June 2, 2023
概括
在1970年至2020年期间,北欧-波罗的海八国对298起恐怖袭击的研究发现了各种各样的事者和目标,瑞典遇到了最多的事件. 右翼极端主义和对移民/难民庇护所的袭击是值得注意的趋势.
科学领域:
- 安全研究 安全研究
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
背景情况:
- 地缘政治变化,包括俄罗斯在乌克兰的行动,加剧了北欧和波罗的海国家的安全担忧.
- 全球对区域安全的兴趣增加了,特别是在北欧-波罗的海八国.
- 北约对芬兰和瑞典的潜在扩张可能会大大改变地区军事和政治动态.
研究的目的:
- 在北欧-波罗的海地区全面识别和描述所有已记录的恐怖袭击事件.
- 利用全球恐怖主义数据库 (GTD) 分析1970年至2020年恐怖事件的趋势.
主要方法:
- 在全球恐怖主义数据库 (GTD) 中系统搜索丹麦,爱沙尼亚,芬兰,冰岛,拉脱维亚,立陶宛,挪威和瑞典的事件.
- 数据整理包括时间因素,位置,目标类型,攻击和武器类型,事者细节,伤亡和财产损失.
- 使用Excel电子表格对统计数据进行分析.
主要成果:
- 在1970年至2020年期间,共有298起恐怖事件被记录在案.
- 瑞典报告的攻击数量最高 (50%),其次是挪威和芬兰. 在1991年之前,波罗的海国家没有记录任何事件.
- 袭击主要针对移民和难民庇护所. 设施/基础设施的袭击和炸弹袭击是常见的. 极右翼极端分子是最容易识别的犯罪集团.
结论:
- 北欧-波罗的海地区从1970年到2020年经历了298起恐怖袭击,具有不同的特点.
- 瑞典是受影响最严重的国家,这凸显了对国家特定安全评估的必要性.
- 右翼极端主义的兴起需要警监测和战略反应.
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