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在不确定的未来需求和天然气价格条件下进行战略性和灵活的液化天然气生产

Noor Yusuf¹, Rajesh Govindan¹, Luluwah Al-Fagih^1,2

¹College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar.

|June 2, 2023

概括

全球对液化天然气 (LNG) 的需求强. 这项研究表明,灵活的液化LNG技术有助于生产商管理价格波动并多样化市场弹性战略.

科学领域:

能源经济学能源经济学
化学工程是化学工程的重要组成部分.
市场分析市场分析

背景情况:

全球液化天然气 (LNG) 需求表现出看的前景,尽管有COVID-19大流行和2020年石油价格战争等市场中断,但仍表现出性.
由于COVID后需求波动和价格前景不稳定,生产商面临新的液化项目投资的不确定性.
买家偏好转向现货和短期合同,需要在项目设计中制定新的生产和销售策略.

研究的目的:

从经济上评估空气产品AP-X液化技术的灵活性.
为了模拟高收入亚太市场的价格波动和需求情景.
评估灵活性对生产者的销售策略和风险管理的影响.

主要方法:

利用一个平均值逆转的跳转-扩散定价模型.
使用蒙特卡洛模拟用于经济估值.
根据亚太地区的历史趋势,评估了各种需求水平情景.

主要成果:

在液化天然气生产系统中嵌入灵活性可以实现多元化的销售策略.
灵活的技术允许生产商利用有利的市场条件 (高需求/价格).
灵活性在需求低和价格低的时期作为对冲市场风险.

结论:

灵活的液化天然气技术对于应对市场不确定性至关重要.
通过采用灵活的策略,生产商可以提高利能力并减轻风险.
AP-X技术为适应不断变化的液化天然气市场动态提供了可行的解决方案.

关键词:

灵活性灵活性灵活性长期合同是指长期的合同.蒙特卡洛模拟的蒙特卡洛模拟现货销售现货销售现货销售现货销售随机模型模型的建模

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