社区的发病模式推动了SARS-CoV-2疫情的风险,并在高风险的机构环境中改变了干预影响
Sean M Moore1, Guido España1, T Alex Perkins1
1Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
Epidemics
|June 2, 2023
概括
社区传播对严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 疫情在军事基地等高风险环境中产生重大影响. 控制外部传播是优化内部控制措施的关键.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 在机构环境中传播给公共卫生带来了重大挑战.
- 在军事基地等高风险环境中控制疫情需要了解外部传播动态.
- 社区发生率模式影响局部爆发的风险和管理.
研究的目的:
- 模拟社区传播对严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 在军事训练营爆发的影响.
- 评估各种控制措施在缓解SARS-CoV-2在机构环境中的传播方面的有效性.
- 确定外部感染和内部控制策略之间的相互作用.
主要方法:
- 一个军事训练营的基于个体的传播模型使用2020-2021年RT-PCR阳性学员数据进行校准.
- 该模型纳入了诸如疫苗接种覆盖率,掩护合规性,病毒变异和基地外感染等因素.
- 国家发病率数据被用来调整对新移民的预测.
主要成果:
- 新移民中预测的感染与调整后的国家发病率相关.
- 训练营的疫情规模与工作人员预测的基地外感染密切相关.
- 基地外感染减少了抵达查和掩护协议的有效性.
- 刚到达的传染病学员减少了接种疫苗和工作人员测试的影响.
结论:
- 外部传播动态对于调节机构环境中SARS-CoV-2爆发风险至关重要.
- 优化控制措施需要考虑内部和外部感染源之间的平衡.
- 战略必须根据社区传播的程度和具体干预措施的有效性进行调整.
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