现象阶段影响胡卜种子生产对气候变化的敏感性 - - 面板数据分析
Asharp Godwin1, Craig McGill2, Andrew Ward3
1School of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand; Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Jaffna, Ariviyal Nagar, Kilinochchi, Sri Lanka.
The Science of the total environment
|June 2, 2023
概括
气候变化对新西兰胡卜种子产量产生了重大影响. 在关键生长阶段,气温上升和降雨模式变化会对产量产生负面影响,凸显了这一重要作物的脆弱性.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业学是一种农业学.
背景情况:
- 新西兰是全球领先的胡卜种子生产国.
- 胡卜种子生产对气候条件非常敏感.
- 气候变化对作物产量构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 模拟温度和降水对胡卜种子产量的影响.
- 分析关键生长阶段的气候影响:青春期,本地化,花发育和开花/种子发育.
- 评估胡卜种子生产对气候变化的脆弱性.
主要方法:
- 面板数据分析使用来自新西兰28个地点 (2005-2022) 的横截面数据.
- 在预诊断测试后使用的固定效应模型.
- 边际效应分析以量化温度和降水影响.
主要成果:
- 在成长阶段观察到温度和降雨量的显著变化.
- 变化的最高速率:最大温度 (春化),最小温度 (花发育) 和降水 (青春期).
- 最低和最高温度对种子产量产生了最大的边际影响,在春化和开花/种子发育阶段产生了特定影响.
结论:
- 新西兰的胡卜种子生产容易受到持续的气候变化的影响.
- 温度波动,特别是最小和最大的温度波动,对种子产量有很大的影响.
- 降水变化也会影响产量,在开花和种子发育期间降雨量增加时,产量显著下降.
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